OLF rebellion
"You have to fight with courage. If you are surrounded by the enemy, always save one bullet for yourself." These are the words of 40 year-old Abdata Basire, commander in chief of the Southern front. In desperate times, this sentence is a rule to all OLF fighters as they struggle to protect the Oromo people. The Ethiopian government, controlled by the Tigrean ethnic minority has survived the past 15 years of resistance to its rule by arresting, torturing or killing any protestors. If a democratic election were to take place, it is clear that the Oromo majority would win and therefore change the entire political landscape of the country. This is exactly what Addis does not want. Any democratic movement would brush them aside promptly giving way to a new order.
Addis Ababa is now fighting on a few fronts, against 5 major rebel groups, from all parts of the country and the powerful Eritrean army on its eastern border. The situation has become critical, its 240,000 men army (TPLF) does not have the resources to be fighting everywhere at the same time, so it relies on poorly equipped, low morale militias numbering more or less the same number protecting the frontiers. On the Kenyan border, the government has poured in thousands of these poor quality militia units, to try to contain the OLF's constant military pressure in the region. These fighters are unreliable due to forced conscription, low pay, but mostly because the militias fighting in the region are Oromos themselves. It is said by the OLF that militias sometime refuse to give battle, and won't shoot directly at OLF troops to make sure not to hurt any of their own kin.
The three-decade long struggle, is only a reflection to a much longer fight between the Abyssinians placed in power by the British rule in the last decade of the XIXth century, which has been followed by systematic reduction of Oromo power in the social and political arenas. The OLF and its allies want to negotiate with Addis to find a compromise and share power while organizing free and fair elections, something that Addis has so far rejected.
The international community, and specifically the United States and Europe, have been less than happy in seeing the OLF gaining such ground politically and militarily, in fear that these rebels would trade one dictatorship for another. The US, has favored Meles's government simply an an aid against terrorism. Meles has promised the United States to fight terrorism wherever he would find it, in return for substantial cash subsidies, mostly used to purchase weapons and ammo, which in turn is used against the OLF, its allies, and people.
So can the OLF be trusted? If they do gain power, will they allow a free and democratic system to take place and allow each minority, including the Tigreans, to be part of the democratic process? The OLF National Congress says it will put in place a full democratic State once the war is won. The OLF's internal political organization does tend to believe that if victory is achieved, Ethiopia would be ruled under the banners of federalism.